Anaheim Ducks at Seattle Kraken NHL Predictions

2025-10-09 • Climate Pledge Arena

Seattle Kraken 3 - 1 Anaheim Ducks

🚨 Upset Win (59% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

SEA: 40.7%

ANA: 59.3%

Expected Goals

SEA: 2.77

ANA: 3.82

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 50%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

SEA

Joey Daccord - 10-9-5 | 0.903 SV% | 2.77 GAA

ANA

Lukas Dostal - 13-9-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.15 GAA

Stat	SEA	ANA
Season SV%	0.903	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.77	3.15

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SEA	Joey Daccord	36	35	1	97.2%	2.64	1	1.64
ANA	Lukas Dostal	31	28	3	90.3%	2.92	1	-0.08

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • SEA at home vs ANA: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-03	ANA 4 - 2 SEA	ANA	ANA
2026-01-23	SEA 2 - 4 ANA	ANA	SEA
2025-12-22	ANA 1 - 3 SEA	SEA	ANA
2025-10-09	SEA 3 - 1 ANA	SEA	ANA
2025-01-28	SEA 4 - 6 ANA	ANA	ANA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SEA	6	0	0.11
1	ANA	23	0	1.18
2	SEA	17	0	1.01
2	ANA	19	1	0.91
3	SEA	23	1	1.81
3	ANA	16	0	0.54

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown