St. Louis Blues at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2025-10-11 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 2 - 4 St. Louis Blues

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CGY: 56.1%

STL: 43.9%

Expected Goals

CGY: 2.68

STL: 3.08

Total Goals

Median: 5.4

Over 5.5: 49%

Over 6.5: 36%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

STL

Joel Hofer - 8-8-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.87 GAA

Stat	CGY	STL
Season SV%	0.901	0.901
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.82	2.87

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dustin Wolf	28	24	4	85.7%	2.72	3	-1.28
STL	Joel Hofer	29	27	2	93.1%	3.50	2	1.50

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • CGY at home vs STL: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-18	CGY 2 - 1 STL	CGY	CGY
2025-11-11	STL 3 - 2 CGY	STL	STL
2025-10-11	CGY 2 - 4 STL	STL	CGY
2025-01-16	STL 4 - 1 CGY	STL	STL
2025-01-14	STL 2 - 1 CGY	STL	STL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	14	0	0.80
1	STL	8	1	0.57
2	CGY	24	2	2.21
2	STL	13	1	0.82
3	CGY	11	0	0.49
3	STL	14	1	1.33

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown