St. Louis Blues at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions
2025-10-11 • Scotiabank Saddledome
Calgary Flames 2 - 4 St. Louis Blues
🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
CGY: 50.6%
STL: 49.4%
Expected Goals
CGY: 3.24
STL: 2.73
Total Goals
Median: 5.9
Over 5.5: 54%
Over 6.5: 38%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
CGY
Dustin Wolf - 16-21-3 | 0.895 SV% | 3.00 GAA
STL
Jordan Binnington - 8-17-6 | 0.864 SV% | 3.65 GAA
| Stat | CGY | STL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.901 | 0.869 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.877 | 0.826 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.881 | 0.950 |
| GAA | 2.82 | 3.56 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • CGY at home vs STL: 0-4
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-11 | STL 3 - 2 CGY | STL | STL |
| 2025-10-11 | CGY 2 - 4 STL | STL | CGY |
| 2025-01-16 | STL 4 - 1 CGY | STL | STL |
| 2025-01-14 | STL 2 - 1 CGY | STL | STL |
| 2024-12-05 | CGY 3 - 4 STL | STL | CGY |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14:49 | CGY | Goal |
| 2 | 14:57 | CGY | Goal |
| 2 | 14:25 | STL | Goal |
| 2 | 12:41 | CGY | Goal |
| 3 | 13:33 | STL | Goal |
| 3 | 11:07 | STL | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 50.6%
Total Goals
Actual: 6.0
Expected: 6.0
Score Breakdown
Calgary Flames 2 - 4 St. Louis Blues
Expected: 3.2 - 2.7