Toronto Maple Leafs at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions
2025-10-11 • Little Caesars Arena
Detroit Red Wings 6 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
DET: 50.6%
TOR: 49.4%
Expected Goals
DET: 3.61
TOR: 2.38
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 55%
Over 6.5: 37%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
DET
John Gibson - 22-12-2 | 0.904 SV% | 2.62 GAA
TOR
Joseph Woll - 13-7-4 | 0.908 SV% | 2.92 GAA
| Stat | DET | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.893 | 0.914 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.887 | 0.910 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.968 | 0.951 |
| GAA | 2.97 | 2.74 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • DET at home vs TOR: 3-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-21 | TOR 1 - 2 DET | DET | TOR |
| 2025-12-28 | DET 3 - 2 TOR | DET | DET |
| 2025-10-13 | TOR 2 - 3 DET | DET | TOR |
| 2025-10-11 | DET 6 - 3 TOR | DET | DET |
| 2025-04-17 | TOR 4 - 3 DET | TOR | TOR |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12:29 | TOR | Goal |
| 1 | 02:27 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 18:10 | DET | Goal |
| 2 | 14:55 | DET | Goal |
| 2 | 08:56 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 19:55 | DET | Goal |
| 3 | 18:12 | DET | Goal |
| 3 | 06:45 | DET | Goal |
| 3 | 02:38 | DET | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 50.6%
Total Goals
Actual: 9.0
Expected: 6.0
Score Breakdown
Detroit Red Wings 6 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs
Expected: 3.6 - 2.4