Ottawa Senators at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2025-10-11 • Amerant Bank Arena

Florida Panthers 6 - 2 Ottawa Senators

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

FLA: 52.5%

OTT: 47.5%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.55

OTT: 3.13

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 39%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

Stat	FLA	OTT
Season SV%	0.888	0.881
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.80	2.95

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	28	26	2	92.9%	1.63	0	-0.37
OTT	Linus Ullmark	27	21	6	77.8%	2.97	2	-3.03

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • FLA at home vs OTT: 5-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-09	OTT 5 - 1 FLA	OTT	OTT
2026-03-31	FLA 6 - 3 OTT	FLA	OTT
2026-01-10	OTT 2 - 3 FLA	FLA	OTT
2025-10-11	FLA 6 - 2 OTT	FLA	FLA
2025-04-05	OTT 3 - 0 FLA	OTT	FLA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	11	0	0.86
1	OTT	12	0	0.47
2	FLA	13	2	1.06
2	OTT	7	0	0.59
3	FLA	12	0	1.05
3	OTT	18	0	0.57

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown