New York Rangers at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2025-10-11 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 1 - 6 New York Rangers

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PIT: 55.5%

NYR: 44.5%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.26

NYR: 3.16

Total Goals

Median: 5.6

Over 5.5: 51%

Over 6.5: 36%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PIT

Arturs Silovs - 7-5-6 | 0.886 SV% | 3.20 GAA

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Stat	PIT	NYR
Season SV%	0.886	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.20	2.51

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Arturs Silovs	30	24	6	80.0%	3.03	2	-2.97
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	19	18	1	94.7%	2.40	2	1.40

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 36% • PIT at home vs NYR: 1-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-28	NYR 3 - 2 PIT	NYR	PIT
2026-01-31	PIT 6 - 5 NYR	PIT	PIT
2025-10-11	PIT 1 - 6 NYR	NYR	PIT
2025-10-07	NYR 0 - 3 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-02-23	PIT 3 - 5 NYR	NYR	PIT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	17	0	1.02
1	NYR	5	0	0.42
2	PIT	7	0	0.58
2	NYR	19	2	1.42
3	PIT	10	2	0.80
3	NYR	14	0	1.18

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown