New York Rangers at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions
2025-10-11 • PPG Paints Arena
Pittsburgh Penguins 1 - 6 New York Rangers
🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
PIT: 51.3%
NYR: 48.7%
Expected Goals
PIT: 3.29
NYR: 2.19
Total Goals
Median: 5.3
Over 5.5: 48%
Over 6.5: 33%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
PIT
Stuart Skinner - 19-12-5 | 0.890 SV% | 2.79 GAA
NYR
Igor Shesterkin - 17-12-4 | 0.913 SV% | 2.45 GAA
| Stat | PIT | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.888 | 0.910 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.863 | 0.942 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.894 | 0.958 |
| GAA | 2.91 | 2.51 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 20% • PIT at home vs NYR: 1-5
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | PIT 6 - 5 NYR | PIT | PIT |
| 2025-10-11 | PIT 1 - 6 NYR | NYR | PIT |
| 2025-10-07 | NYR 0 - 3 PIT | PIT | NYR |
| 2025-02-23 | PIT 3 - 5 NYR | NYR | PIT |
| 2025-02-07 | NYR 2 - 3 PIT | PIT | NYR |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 07:40 | NYR | Goal |
| 2 | 03:04 | PIT | Goal |
| 2 | 06:06 | NYR | Goal |
| 2 | 09:25 | NYR | Goal |
| 2 | 16:38 | NYR | Goal |
| 3 | 05:40 | NYR | Goal |
| 3 | 14:12 | NYR | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 51.3%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 5.5
Score Breakdown
Pittsburgh Penguins 1 - 6 New York Rangers
Expected: 3.3 - 2.2