Philadelphia Flyers at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions

2025-10-11 • Lenovo Center

Carolina Hurricanes 4 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CAR: 75.8%

PHI: 24.2%

Expected Goals

CAR: 4.23

PHI: 3.04

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

Stat	CAR	PHI
Season SV%	0.865	0.868
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.38	3.09

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CAR	Frederik Andersen	23	20	3	87.0%	3.58	4	0.58
PHI	Samuel Ersson	39	35	4	89.7%	5.85	6	1.85

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • CAR at home vs PHI: 9-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-11	PHI 1 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-10-03	PHI 2 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-05-09	PHI 2 - 3 CAR	CAR	PHI
2026-05-07	PHI 1 - 4 CAR	CAR	PHI
2026-05-04	CAR 3 - 2 PHI	CAR	CAR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CAR	24	3	2.05
1	PHI	9	1	1.11
2	CAR	18	2	1.42
2	PHI	18	3	1.87
3	CAR	20	1	2.02
3	PHI	8	0	0.46
4	CAR	3	0	0.36
4	PHI	1	0	0.13

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 75.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 7.3

Score Breakdown

Carolina Hurricanes 4 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 4.2 - 3.0