Montreal Canadiens at Chicago Blackhawks NHL Predictions

2025-10-11 • United Center

Chicago Blackhawks 2 - 3 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CHI: 51.4%

MTL: 48.6%

Expected Goals

CHI: 2.91

MTL: 3.41

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 41%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CHI

Spencer Knight - 11-11-6 | 0.909 SV% | 2.63 GAA

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

Stat	CHI	MTL
Season SV%	0.909	0.863
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.63	3.52

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CHI	Spencer Knight	28	25	3	89.3%	3.78	4	0.78
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	22	20	2	90.9%	1.84	1	-0.16

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • CHI at home vs MTL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-18	MTL 4 - 1 CHI	MTL	MTL
2025-10-11	CHI 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	CHI
2025-04-14	MTL 3 - 4 CHI	CHI	MTL
2025-01-03	CHI 4 - 2 MTL	CHI	MTL
2023-12-22	CHI 2 - 5 MTL	MTL	MTL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CHI	7	1	0.61
1	MTL	15	1	1.37
2	CHI	11	0	0.43
2	MTL	15	2	1.54
3	CHI	16	0	0.79
3	MTL	13	1	0.87

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown