Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2025-10-11 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 4 - 5 Dallas Stars (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

COL: 52.2%

DAL: 47.8%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.15

DAL: 2.52

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 51%

Over 6.5: 39%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

COL

Scott Wedgewood - 17-1-4 | 0.919 SV% | 2.13 GAA

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Stat	COL	DAL
Season SV%	0.919	0.907
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.13	2.57

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Scott Wedgewood	25	19	6	76.0%	4.85	5	-1.15
DAL	Jake Oettinger	42	37	5	88.1%	4.44	2	-0.56

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • COL at home vs DAL: 5-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	DAL 0 - 2 COL	COL	COL
2026-03-18	COL 1 - 2 DAL	DAL	COL
2026-03-06	DAL 4 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2025-10-11	COL 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	COL
2025-05-03	DAL 4 - 2 COL	DAL	COL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	19	0	1.21
1	DAL	10	0	0.65
2	COL	15	1	0.73
2	DAL	9	1	1.40
3	COL	22	0	1.48
3	DAL	13	2	1.13
4	COL	2	0	0.13
4	DAL	1	0	0.05
5	COL	3	1	0.88
5	DAL	3	2	1.63

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 4 - 5 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.1 - 2.5