Vancouver Canucks at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2025-10-11 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 3 - 1 Vancouver Canucks

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

EDM: 75.8%

VAN: 24.2%

Expected Goals

EDM: 4.27

VAN: 2.89

Total Goals

Median: 5.2

Over 5.5: 44%

Over 6.5: 32%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

EDM

Calvin Pickard - 4-5-2 | 0.874 SV% | 3.69 GAA

VAN

Thatcher Demko - 8-8-0 | 0.905 SV% | 2.72 GAA

Stat	EDM	VAN
Season SV%	0.874	0.905
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.69	2.72

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Calvin Pickard	15	14	1	93.3%	2.43	3	1.43
VAN	Thatcher Demko	37	34	3	91.9%	5.70	9	2.70

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • EDM at home vs VAN: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-16	EDM 6 - 1 VAN	EDM	EDM
2026-01-17	VAN 0 - 6 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-10-26	VAN 4 - 3 EDM	VAN	EDM
2025-10-11	EDM 3 - 1 VAN	EDM	EDM
2025-01-23	EDM 6 - 2 VAN	EDM	EDM

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	18	4	2.18
1	VAN	7	0	0.45
2	EDM	20	1	1.26
2	VAN	7	2	1.07
3	EDM	16	4	2.26
3	VAN	12	1	0.90

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 75.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 7.2

Score Breakdown