Anaheim Ducks at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2025-10-11 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 6 - 7 Anaheim Ducks (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

SJS: 39.2%

ANA: 60.8%

Expected Goals

SJS: 3.03

ANA: 2.71

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

SJS

Yaroslav Askarov - 15-10-1 | 0.896 SV% | 3.36 GAA

ANA

Petr Mrazek - 3-4-0 | 0.865 SV% | 3.78 GAA

Stat	SJS	ANA
Season SV%	0.896	0.865
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.36	3.78

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	Yaroslav Askarov	44	37	7	84.1%	5.27	4	-1.73
ANA	Petr Mrazek	23	17	6	73.9%	2.44	2	-3.56

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 82% • SJS at home vs ANA: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-09	ANA 6 - 1 SJS	ANA	ANA
2026-04-01	SJS 4 - 3 ANA	SJS	SJS
2025-12-29	ANA 4 - 5 SJS	SJS	ANA
2025-10-11	SJS 6 - 7 ANA	ANA	ANA
2025-04-01	ANA 4 - 3 SJS	ANA	ANA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	7	1	0.67
1	ANA	23	2	2.01
2	SJS	16	0	1.07
2	ANA	17	2	1.87
3	SJS	6	1	0.65
3	ANA	25	0	1.33
4	SJS	1	0	0.04
4	ANA	1	0	0.07

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 13.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

San Jose Sharks 6 - 7 Anaheim Ducks

Expected: 3.0 - 2.7