Washington Capitals at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2025-10-12 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 0 - 1 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Loss (70% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYR: 70.3%

WSH: 29.7%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.85

WSH: 2.29

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYR

Jonathan Quick - 3-6-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.11 GAA

WSH

Charlie Lindgren - 6-4-2 | 0.887 SV% | 3.07 GAA

Stat	NYR	WSH
Season SV%	0.924	0.887
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.11	3.07

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Jonathan Quick	21	20	1	95.2%	2.65	3	1.65
WSH	Charlie Lindgren	35	35	0	100.0%	2.89	0	2.89

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • NYR at home vs WSH: 5-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-05	NYR 8 - 1 WSH	NYR	NYR
2025-12-31	WSH 6 - 3 NYR	WSH	WSH
2025-12-23	WSH 3 - 7 NYR	NYR	WSH
2025-10-12	NYR 0 - 1 WSH	WSH	NYR
2025-03-05	NYR 2 - 3 WSH	WSH	NYR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	22	0	1.02
1	WSH	15	0	0.78
2	NYR	15	0	1.23
2	WSH	7	0	0.43
3	NYR	16	0	0.64
3	WSH	12	3	1.43

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 70.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 1.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown