Tampa Bay Lightning at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions
2025-10-13 • TD Garden
Boston Bruins 3 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning
🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
BOS: 51.8%
TBL: 48.2%
Expected Goals
BOS: 3.96
TBL: 2.53
Total Goals
Median: 6.1
Over 5.5: 62%
Over 6.5: 47%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
BOS
Jeremy Swayman - 22-12-3 | 0.903 SV% | 2.92 GAA
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 28-7-3 | 0.920 SV% | 2.11 GAA
| Stat | BOS | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.903 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.889 | 0.921 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.891 | 0.853 |
| GAA | 2.84 | 2.33 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • BOS at home vs TBL: 2-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-01 | TBL 6 - 5 BOS | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-10-13 | BOS 3 - 4 TBL | TBL | BOS |
| 2025-03-15 | BOS 2 - 6 TBL | TBL | BOS |
| 2025-03-08 | TBL 0 - 4 BOS | BOS | TBL |
| 2025-01-14 | BOS 6 - 2 TBL | BOS | BOS |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13:16 | TBL | Goal |
| 1 | 01:09 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 11:35 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 05:31 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 03:37 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 01:09 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 00:39 | TBL | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 51.8%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.5
Score Breakdown
Boston Bruins 3 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected: 4.0 - 2.5