Tampa Bay Lightning at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2025-10-13 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 3 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Loss (70% underdog)

Win Probability

BOS: 69.6%

TBL: 30.4%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.62

TBL: 3.28

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 37%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • BOS at home vs TBL: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	BOS 1 - 2 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-04-04	TBL 3 - 1 BOS	TBL	TBL
2026-02-01	TBL 6 - 5 BOS	TBL	TBL
2025-10-13	BOS 3 - 4 TBL	TBL	BOS
2025-03-15	BOS 2 - 6 TBL	TBL	BOS

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	15	0	0.44
1	TBL	16	3	1.91
2	BOS	20	0	1.01
2	TBL	15	1	0.86
3	BOS	18	1	0.90
3	TBL	11	1	1.29

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 69.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 3 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.6 - 3.3