Nashville Predators at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2025-10-13 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 1 - 4 Nashville Predators

🚨 Upset Loss (65% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

OTT: 65.4%

NSH: 34.6%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.27

NSH: 2.61

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 40%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

NSH

Juuse Saros - 15-13-3 | 0.897 SV% | 2.93 GAA

Stat	OTT	NSH
Season SV%	0.881	0.897
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.95	2.93

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Linus Ullmark	26	22	4	84.6%	4.45	3	0.45
NSH	Juuse Saros	32	31	1	96.9%	2.85	1	1.85

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • OTT at home vs NSH: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-22	NSH 5 - 3 OTT	NSH	OTT
2025-10-13	OTT 1 - 4 NSH	NSH	OTT
2025-02-03	NSH 2 - 5 OTT	OTT	NSH
2024-12-07	OTT 3 - 1 NSH	OTT	OTT
2024-02-27	NSH 4 - 1 OTT	NSH	NSH

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	7	0	0.23
1	NSH	10	0	0.84
2	OTT	20	0	1.07
2	NSH	9	0	0.51
3	OTT	22	1	1.56
3	NSH	18	3	3.10

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 65.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown