Carolina Hurricanes at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2025-10-14 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 1 - 5 Carolina Hurricanes

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

SJS: 20.3%

CAR: 79.7%

Expected Goals

SJS: 1.37

CAR: 4.30

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

SJS

Alex Nedeljkovic - 5-7-2 | 0.895 SV% | 3.06 GAA

CAR

Brandon Bussi - 13-2-1 | 0.901 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Stat	SJS	CAR
Season SV%	0.895	0.901
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.06	2.33

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	Alex Nedeljkovic	43	38	5	88.4%	3.48	0	-1.52
CAR	Brandon Bussi	17	16	1	94.1%	2.07	1	1.07

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • SJS at home vs CAR: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-07	CAR 1 - 4 SJS	SJS	CAR
2025-10-14	SJS 1 - 5 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-03-20	SJS 1 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR
2024-12-10	CAR 3 - 2 SJS	CAR	CAR
2023-10-27	CAR 3 - 0 SJS	CAR	CAR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	11	1	0.67
1	CAR	18	0	0.78
2	SJS	11	0	1.08
2	CAR	29	0	1.73
3	SJS	5	0	0.32
3	CAR	17	0	0.98

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 79.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown