Ottawa Senators at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2025-10-15 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 8 - 4 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Win (62% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BUF: 38.4%

OTT: 61.6%

Expected Goals

BUF: 2.78

OTT: 3.56

Total Goals

Median: 5.3

Over 5.5: 48%

Over 6.5: 32%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BUF

Alex Lyon - 10-6-3 | 0.906 SV% | 2.82 GAA

OTT

Leevi Meriläinen - 5-7-0 | 0.872 SV% | 3.46 GAA

Stat	BUF	OTT
Season SV%	0.906	0.872
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.82	3.46

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Alex Lyon	37	33	4	89.2%	3.84	3	-0.16
OTT	Leevi Meriläinen	27	19	8	70.4%	3.08	4	-4.92

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • BUF at home vs OTT: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	OTT 4 - 1 BUF	OTT	OTT
2025-12-23	OTT 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	OTT
2025-10-15	BUF 8 - 4 OTT	BUF	OTT
2025-04-01	OTT 2 - 5 BUF	BUF	OTT
2025-03-25	BUF 3 - 2 OTT	BUF	BUF

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	6	0	0.37
1	OTT	10	1	0.83
2	BUF	22	3	1.95
2	OTT	23	2	1.82
3	BUF	4	1	0.75
3	OTT	19	0	1.19

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 12.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown