Ottawa Senators at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2025-10-15 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 8 - 4 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Win (61% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 38.5%

OTT: 61.5%

Expected Goals

BUF: 2.67

OTT: 3.60

Total Goals

Median: 5.4

Over 5.5: 47%

Over 6.5: 31%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 36% • BUF at home vs OTT: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	OTT 4 - 1 BUF	OTT	OTT
2025-12-23	OTT 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	OTT
2025-10-15	BUF 8 - 4 OTT	BUF	OTT
2025-04-01	OTT 2 - 5 BUF	BUF	OTT
2025-03-25	BUF 3 - 2 OTT	BUF	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	6	0	0.37
1	OTT	10	1	0.83
2	BUF	22	3	1.95
2	OTT	23	2	1.82
3	BUF	4	1	0.75
3	OTT	19	0	1.19

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 12.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 8 - 4 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 2.7 - 3.6