New York Rangers at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-10-16 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 1 New York Rangers (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TOR: 46.4%

NYR: 53.6%

Expected Goals

TOR: 2.96

NYR: 3.01

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TOR

Anthony Stolarz - 6-5-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.51 GAA

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Stat	TOR	NYR
Season SV%	0.884	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.51	2.51

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Anthony Stolarz	29	28	1	96.6%	2.94	1	1.94
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	24	22	2	91.7%	2.21	1	0.21

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • TOR at home vs NYR: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-25	TOR 4 - 3 NYR	TOR	NYR
2026-03-05	NYR 6 - 2 TOR	NYR	NYR
2025-10-16	TOR 2 - 1 NYR	TOR	NYR
2025-03-20	NYR 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	NYR
2025-02-28	NYR 2 - 3 TOR	TOR	TOR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	12	1	1.04
1	NYR	13	0	1.05
2	TOR	18	0	0.76
2	NYR	13	0	0.84
3	TOR	7	0	0.33
3	NYR	19	1	1.04
4	TOR	1	0	0.09
4	NYR	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 1 New York Rangers

Expected: 3.0 - 3.0