Seattle Kraken at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2025-10-16 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 4 - 3 Seattle Kraken (SO)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

OTT: 67.6%

SEA: 32.4%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.11

SEA: 3.00

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

SEA

Philipp Grubauer - 7-3-1 | 0.920 SV% | 2.32 GAA

Stat	OTT	SEA
Season SV%	0.881	0.920
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.95	2.32

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Linus Ullmark	35	32	3	91.4%	4.92	4	1.92
SEA	Philipp Grubauer	25	20	5	80.0%	4.02	3	-0.98

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 100% • OTT at home vs SEA: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-07	SEA 4 - 7 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-10-16	OTT 4 - 3 SEA	OTT	OTT
2024-12-17	SEA 0 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2024-11-02	OTT 3 - 0 SEA	OTT	OTT
2024-01-04	SEA 4 - 1 OTT	SEA	SEA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	17	0	0.90
1	SEA	10	1	0.96
2	OTT	15	1	0.71
2	SEA	20	1	1.66
3	OTT	13	0	0.46
3	SEA	13	2	1.67
4	OTT	1	0	0.12
4	SEA	5	0	0.50
5	OTT	3	2	1.83
5	SEA	2	0	0.13

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 67.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 4 - 3 Seattle Kraken

Expected: 3.1 - 3.0