Florida Panthers at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions

2025-10-16 • Prudential Center

New Jersey Devils 3 - 1 Florida Panthers

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NJD: 57.0%

FLA: 43.0%

Expected Goals

NJD: 3.32

FLA: 3.14

Total Goals

Median: 5.6

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NJD

Jake Allen - 11-8-1 | 0.912 SV% | 2.52 GAA

FLA

Daniil Tarasov - 4-6-2 | 0.899 SV% | 2.96 GAA

Stat	NJD	FLA
Season SV%	0.912	0.899
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.52	2.96

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NJD	Jake Allen	22	21	1	95.5%	2.05	2	1.05
FLA	Daniil Tarasov	33	30	3	90.9%	3.22	1	0.22

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • NJD at home vs FLA: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-03	NJD 5 - 1 FLA	NJD	NJD
2025-11-20	FLA 1 - 0 NJD	FLA	FLA
2025-10-16	NJD 3 - 1 FLA	NJD	NJD
2025-01-14	NJD 1 - 2 FLA	FLA	NJD
2024-11-14	FLA 2 - 6 NJD	NJD	NJD

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NJD	16	1	1.17
1	FLA	9	1	0.92
2	NJD	19	0	1.34
2	FLA	14	1	0.62
3	NJD	13	0	0.70
3	FLA	13	0	0.51

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown