Winnipeg Jets at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions
2025-10-16 • Xfinity Mobile Arena
Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 5 Winnipeg Jets
🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
PHI: 51.6%
WPG: 48.4%
Expected Goals
PHI: 3.27
WPG: 2.65
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 55%
Over 6.5: 41%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
PHI
Dan Vladar - 17-9-6 | 0.905 SV% | 2.46 GAA
WPG
Connor Hellebuyck - 13-16-7 | 0.900 SV% | 2.79 GAA
| Stat | PHI | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.910 | 0.907 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.918 | 0.879 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | 0.882 |
| GAA | 2.40 | 2.51 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 20% • PHI at home vs WPG: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-16 | PHI 2 - 5 WPG | WPG | PHI |
| 2025-03-06 | PHI 1 - 4 WPG | WPG | PHI |
| 2025-03-01 | WPG 1 - 2 PHI | PHI | WPG |
| 2024-02-08 | PHI 4 - 1 WPG | PHI | PHI |
| 2024-01-13 | WPG 0 - 2 PHI | PHI | WPG |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 05:45 | WPG | Goal |
| 2 | 07:01 | WPG | Goal |
| 2 | 16:22 | WPG | Goal |
| 2 | 17:43 | WPG | Goal |
| 3 | 09:40 | WPG | Goal |
| 3 | 17:39 | WPG | Goal |
| 3 | 18:47 | WPG | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 51.6%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 5.9
Score Breakdown
Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 5 Winnipeg Jets
Expected: 3.3 - 2.6