Colorado Avalanche at Columbus Blue Jackets NHL Predictions

2025-10-16 • Nationwide Arena

Columbus Blue Jackets 1 - 4 Colorado Avalanche

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CBJ: 42.2%

COL: 57.8%

Expected Goals

CBJ: 2.65

COL: 3.54

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CBJ

Elvis Merzlikins - 6-6-1 | 0.877 SV% | 4.04 GAA

COL

Scott Wedgewood - 17-1-4 | 0.919 SV% | 2.13 GAA

Stat	CBJ	COL
Season SV%	0.877	0.919
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	4.04	2.13

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	36	32	4	88.9%	5.29	3	1.29
COL	Scott Wedgewood	23	22	1	95.7%	2.09	1	1.09

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • CBJ at home vs COL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-10	COL 4 - 0 CBJ	COL	COL
2025-10-16	CBJ 1 - 4 COL	COL	COL
2025-04-03	CBJ 3 - 7 COL	COL	COL
2024-10-12	COL 4 - 6 CBJ	CBJ	COL
2024-04-01	CBJ 4 - 1 COL	CBJ	COL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CBJ	14	0	0.76
1	COL	20	1	1.78
2	CBJ	11	0	0.40
2	COL	21	0	1.53
3	CBJ	15	1	0.94
3	COL	14	2	1.99

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown