Vancouver Canucks at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions
2025-10-16 • American Airlines Center
Dallas Stars 3 - 5 Vancouver Canucks
🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
DAL: 52.6%
VAN: 47.4%
Expected Goals
DAL: 3.19
VAN: 1.71
Total Goals
Median: 4.7
Over 5.5: 36%
Over 6.5: 22%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
DAL
Jake Oettinger - 23-10-4 | 0.897 SV% | 2.73 GAA
VAN
Kevin Lankinen - 7-19-4 | 0.876 SV% | 3.67 GAA
| Stat | DAL | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.907 | 0.885 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.860 | 0.793 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.944 | 0.833 |
| GAA | 2.57 | 3.41 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 38% • DAL at home vs VAN: 2-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-20 | VAN 2 - 4 DAL | DAL | VAN |
| 2025-10-16 | DAL 3 - 5 VAN | VAN | DAL |
| 2025-04-08 | DAL 5 - 6 VAN | VAN | DAL |
| 2025-03-09 | VAN 1 - 4 DAL | DAL | VAN |
| 2025-01-31 | DAL 5 - 3 VAN | DAL | DAL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19:22 | DAL | Goal |
| 1 | 04:29 | DAL | Goal |
| 2 | 18:54 | VAN | Goal |
| 2 | 10:06 | VAN | Goal |
| 2 | 08:50 | DAL | Goal |
| 2 | 06:40 | DAL | Goal |
| 3 | 19:23 | VAN | Goal |
| 3 | 17:52 | VAN | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 52.6%
Total Goals
Actual: 8.0
Expected: 4.9
Score Breakdown
Dallas Stars 3 - 5 Vancouver Canucks
Expected: 3.2 - 1.7