Carolina Hurricanes at Anaheim Ducks NHL Predictions

2025-10-16 • Honda Center

Anaheim Ducks 1 - 4 Carolina Hurricanes

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

ANA: 32.4%

CAR: 67.6%

Expected Goals

ANA: 2.52

CAR: 3.16

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 50%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

ANA

Lukas Dostal - 13-9-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.15 GAA

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

Stat	ANA	CAR
Season SV%	0.888	0.865
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.15	3.38

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ANA	Lukas Dostal	32	28	4	87.5%	4.28	3	0.28
CAR	Frederik Andersen	24	23	1	95.8%	2.65	2	1.65

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • ANA at home vs CAR: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-08	CAR 5 - 2 ANA	CAR	CAR
2025-10-16	ANA 1 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-03-23	ANA 2 - 5 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-01-12	CAR 2 - 3 ANA	ANA	CAR
2024-01-11	CAR 6 - 3 ANA	CAR	CAR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ANA	11	1	0.58
1	CAR	17	1	1.48
2	ANA	14	1	1.39
2	CAR	16	1	1.32
3	ANA	11	0	0.68
3	CAR	11	1	1.49

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 67.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown