Minnesota Wild at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2025-10-17 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 5 - 1 Minnesota Wild

Win Probability

WSH: 54.2%

MIN: 45.8%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.29

MIN: 2.99

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 43%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • WSH at home vs MIN: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-16	MIN 5 - 0 WSH	MIN	WSH
2025-10-17	WSH 5 - 1 MIN	WSH	WSH
2025-03-27	MIN 4 - 2 WSH	MIN	MIN
2025-01-02	WSH 3 - 4 MIN	MIN	WSH
2024-01-23	MIN 5 - 3 WSH	MIN	MIN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	16	2	1.26
1	MIN	6	0	0.10
2	WSH	16	0	0.90
2	MIN	9	1	0.81
3	WSH	24	3	2.02
3	MIN	13	0	0.76

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 5 - 1 Minnesota Wild

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0