Vancouver Canucks at Chicago Blackhawks NHL Predictions

2025-10-17 • United Center

Chicago Blackhawks 2 - 3 Vancouver Canucks (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CHI: 56.2%

VAN: 43.8%

Expected Goals

CHI: 3.47

VAN: 3.25

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CHI

Spencer Knight - 11-11-6 | 0.909 SV% | 2.63 GAA

VAN

Kevin Lankinen - 6-10-3 | 0.885 SV% | 3.41 GAA

Stat	CHI	VAN
Season SV%	0.909	0.885
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.63	3.41

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CHI	Spencer Knight	34	31	3	91.2%	4.76	4	1.76
VAN	Kevin Lankinen	37	35	2	94.6%	3.28	1	1.28

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • CHI at home vs VAN: 0-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-06	CHI 3 - 6 VAN	VAN	VAN
2025-11-05	VAN 2 - 5 CHI	CHI	VAN
2025-10-17	CHI 2 - 3 VAN	VAN	CHI
2025-03-15	VAN 6 - 2 CHI	VAN	VAN
2024-11-16	VAN 4 - 1 CHI	VAN	VAN

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CHI	21	1	1.95
1	VAN	16	0	0.49
2	CHI	15	0	0.58
2	VAN	13	1	1.20
3	CHI	9	0	0.42
3	VAN	20	2	1.50
4	CHI	1	0	0.03
4	VAN	5	0	0.50
5	CHI	4	0	0.29
5	VAN	4	1	1.06

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Chicago Blackhawks 2 - 3 Vancouver Canucks

Expected: 3.5 - 3.3