Edmonton Oilers at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions

2025-10-18 • Prudential Center

New Jersey Devils 5 - 3 Edmonton Oilers

🚨 Upset Win (56% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NJD: 43.7%

EDM: 56.3%

Expected Goals

NJD: 2.87

EDM: 3.50

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 49%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NJD

Jake Allen - 11-8-1 | 0.912 SV% | 2.52 GAA

EDM

Calvin Pickard - 4-5-2 | 0.874 SV% | 3.69 GAA

Stat	NJD	EDM
Season SV%	0.912	0.874
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.52	3.69

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NJD	Jake Allen	30	27	3	90.0%	2.57	3	-0.43
EDM	Calvin Pickard	23	18	5	78.3%	3.57	3	-1.43

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • NJD at home vs EDM: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-20	EDM 1 - 2 NJD	NJD	EDM
2025-10-18	NJD 5 - 3 EDM	NJD	EDM
2025-03-13	NJD 3 - 2 EDM	NJD	EDM
2024-11-04	EDM 0 - 3 NJD	NJD	NJD
2023-12-21	NJD 3 - 6 EDM	EDM	EDM

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NJD	7	1	0.45
1	EDM	13	2	0.95
2	NJD	20	0	1.64
2	EDM	18	1	1.19
3	NJD	10	2	1.48
3	EDM	9	0	0.44

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown