Seattle Kraken at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-10-18 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 4 Seattle Kraken (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TOR: 54.2%

SEA: 45.8%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.22

SEA: 2.93

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TOR

Anthony Stolarz - 6-5-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.51 GAA

SEA

Joey Daccord - 10-9-5 | 0.903 SV% | 2.77 GAA

Stat	TOR	SEA
Season SV%	0.884	0.903
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.51	2.77

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Anthony Stolarz	28	24	4	85.7%	2.35	1	-1.65
SEA	Joey Daccord	30	27	3	90.0%	2.26	1	-0.74

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TOR at home vs SEA: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-29	SEA 5 - 2 TOR	SEA	SEA
2025-10-18	TOR 3 - 4 SEA	SEA	TOR
2025-02-06	SEA 1 - 3 TOR	TOR	TOR
2024-10-31	TOR 4 - 1 SEA	TOR	TOR
2024-01-21	SEA 1 - 3 TOR	TOR	SEA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	11	0	0.48
1	SEA	8	1	0.69
2	TOR	16	0	0.89
2	SEA	13	0	0.55
3	TOR	13	1	0.82
3	SEA	11	0	0.67
4	TOR	1	0	0.06
4	SEA	4	0	0.44

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 4 Seattle Kraken

Expected: 3.2 - 2.9