New York Rangers at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2025-10-18 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 4 New York Rangers

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MTL: 43.0%

NYR: 57.0%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.43

NYR: 2.71

Total Goals

Median: 5.6

Over 5.5: 51%

Over 6.5: 39%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

NYR

Jonathan Quick - 3-6-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.11 GAA

Stat	MTL	NYR
Season SV%	0.863	0.924
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.52	2.11

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	22	18	4	81.8%	3.40	3	-0.60
NYR	Jonathan Quick	24	21	3	87.5%	2.17	1	-0.83

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 89% • MTL at home vs NYR: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	NYR 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-12-13	NYR 5 - 4 MTL	NYR	NYR
2025-10-18	MTL 3 - 4 NYR	NYR	NYR
2025-01-19	MTL 5 - 4 NYR	MTL	MTL
2024-11-30	NYR 4 - 3 MTL	NYR	MTL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	14	0	0.98
1	NYR	9	1	0.68
2	MTL	12	0	0.64
2	NYR	14	0	0.88
3	MTL	11	1	0.54
3	NYR	17	2	1.85

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown