New York Rangers at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions
2025-10-18 • Centre Bell
Montreal Canadiens 3 - 4 New York Rangers
🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
MTL: 51.9%
NYR: 48.1%
Expected Goals
MTL: 3.38
NYR: 2.94
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 60%
Over 6.5: 43%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 18-5-4 | 0.892 SV% | 2.96 GAA
NYR
Igor Shesterkin - 17-12-4 | 0.913 SV% | 2.45 GAA
| Stat | MTL | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.889 | 0.910 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.903 | 0.942 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | 0.778 |
| GAA | 3.01 | 2.51 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 88% • MTL at home vs NYR: 2-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-13 | NYR 5 - 4 MTL | NYR | NYR |
| 2025-10-18 | MTL 3 - 4 NYR | NYR | MTL |
| 2025-01-19 | MTL 5 - 4 NYR | MTL | MTL |
| 2024-11-30 | NYR 4 - 3 MTL | NYR | NYR |
| 2024-10-22 | MTL 2 - 7 NYR | NYR | NYR |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11:56 | MTL | Goal |
| 1 | 03:42 | MTL | Goal |
| 1 | 01:33 | MTL | Goal |
| 3 | 08:26 | NYR | Goal |
| 3 | 05:51 | NYR | Goal |
| 3 | 04:11 | NYR | Goal |
| 3 | 00:34 | MTL | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 51.9%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.3
Score Breakdown
Montreal Canadiens 3 - 4 New York Rangers
Expected: 3.4 - 2.9