Boston Bruins at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2025-10-18 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 4 - 1 Boston Bruins

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

COL: 66.9%

BOS: 33.1%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.10

BOS: 2.24

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

COL

Scott Wedgewood - 17-1-4 | 0.919 SV% | 2.13 GAA

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

Stat	COL	BOS
Season SV%	0.919	0.903
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.13	2.84

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Scott Wedgewood	14	13	1	92.9%	1.11	0	0.11
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	38	34	4	89.5%	4.30	3	0.30

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • COL at home vs BOS: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-10-25	BOS 3 - 2 COL	BOS	COL
2025-10-18	COL 4 - 1 BOS	COL	COL
2025-01-25	BOS 3 - 1 COL	BOS	COL
2024-10-16	COL 3 - 5 BOS	BOS	COL
2024-01-18	BOS 5 - 2 COL	BOS	BOS

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	12	0	0.71
1	BOS	10	0	0.40
2	COL	27	1	1.72
2	BOS	4	0	0.18
3	COL	20	2	1.86
3	BOS	7	0	0.54

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 66.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.3

Score Breakdown