Calgary Flames at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2025-10-18 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 6 - 1 Calgary Flames

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VGK: 67.5%

CGY: 32.5%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.92

CGY: 2.52

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Stat	VGK	CGY
Season SV%	0.888	0.901
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.73	2.82

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Adin Hill	27	26	1	96.3%	2.63	3	1.63
CGY	Dustin Wolf	28	22	6	78.6%	3.13	4	-2.87

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 75% • VGK at home vs CGY: 5-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	VGK 6 - 3 CGY	VGK	VGK
2025-12-20	CGY 6 - 3 VGK	CGY	VGK
2025-10-18	VGK 6 - 1 CGY	VGK	VGK
2025-10-14	CGY 2 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-04-15	CGY 5 - 4 VGK	CGY	VGK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	10	1	0.70
1	CGY	16	2	1.32
2	VGK	17	2	1.36
2	CGY	9	0	0.17
3	VGK	11	1	1.07
3	CGY	17	1	1.14

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 67.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown