Minnesota Wild at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2025-10-20 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 1 - 3 Minnesota Wild

🚨 Upset Loss (69% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYR: 69.4%

MIN: 30.6%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.72

MIN: 2.26

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 40%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

Stat	NYR	MIN
Season SV%	0.910	0.912
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.51	2.47

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	32	29	3	90.6%	3.73	2	0.73
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	24	23	1	95.8%	2.96	2	1.96

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • NYR at home vs MIN: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	MIN 2 - 4 NYR	NYR	MIN
2025-10-20	NYR 1 - 3 MIN	MIN	NYR
2025-04-02	NYR 5 - 4 MIN	NYR	NYR
2025-03-13	MIN 2 - 3 NYR	NYR	NYR
2023-11-09	NYR 4 - 1 MIN	NYR	NYR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	7	1	0.86
1	MIN	25	0	1.57
2	NYR	19	0	0.81
2	MIN	19	1	1.35
3	NYR	19	1	1.29
3	MIN	6	1	0.82

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 69.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown