Buffalo Sabres at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2025-10-20 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 2 Buffalo Sabres

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MTL: 59.1%

BUF: 40.9%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.89

BUF: 3.43

Total Goals

Median: 5.4

Over 5.5: 49%

Over 6.5: 41%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

BUF

Alex Lyon - 10-6-3 | 0.906 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Stat	MTL	BUF
Season SV%	0.889	0.906
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.01	2.82

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Jakub Dobes	32	30	2	93.8%	5.27	7	3.27
BUF	Alex Lyon	32	28	4	87.5%	3.78	3	-0.22

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 32% • MTL at home vs BUF: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-18	BUF 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	BUF
2026-05-16	MTL 3 - 8 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-05-14	BUF 3 - 6 MTL	MTL	BUF
2026-05-12	MTL 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-05-10	MTL 6 - 2 BUF	MTL	BUF

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	21	1	1.62
1	BUF	15	1	1.03
2	MTL	8	0	0.19
2	BUF	15	1	1.25
3	MTL	18	2	1.97
3	BUF	21	5	2.99

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 7.3

Score Breakdown