Carolina Hurricanes at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2025-10-20 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 1 Carolina Hurricanes

🚨 Upset Win (68% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VGK: 31.9%

CAR: 68.1%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.09

CAR: 3.19

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

Stat	VGK	CAR
Season SV%	0.888	0.865
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.73	3.38

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Adin Hill	27	26	1	96.3%	2.08	0	1.08
CAR	Frederik Andersen	26	22	4	84.6%	2.93	3	-1.07

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • VGK at home vs CAR: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-06-14	VGK 0 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-06-11	CAR 4 - 2 VGK	CAR	CAR
2026-06-09	VGK 3 - 5 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-06-06	VGK 5 - 4 CAR	VGK	CAR
2026-06-04	CAR 4 - 3 VGK	CAR	CAR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	14	1	1.15
1	CAR	10	0	0.43
2	VGK	10	1	0.69
2	CAR	11	0	0.78
3	VGK	13	1	1.09
3	CAR	16	0	0.87

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 68.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown