New Jersey Devils at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-10-21 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 5 New Jersey Devils

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 52.4%

NJD: 47.6%

Expected Goals

TOR: 2.98

NJD: 2.92

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • TOR at home vs NJD: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-04	NJD 4 - 3 TOR	NJD	TOR
2025-12-30	TOR 4 - 0 NJD	TOR	TOR
2025-10-21	TOR 2 - 5 NJD	NJD	TOR
2025-01-16	TOR 4 - 3 NJD	TOR	TOR
2024-12-10	NJD 1 - 2 TOR	TOR	NJD

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	9	1	0.63
1	NJD	11	1	0.94
2	TOR	16	1	1.25
2	NJD	21	2	1.67
3	TOR	14	1	1.06
3	NJD	14	2	1.19

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 5 New Jersey Devils

Expected: 3.0 - 2.9