Edmonton Oilers at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions
2025-10-21 • Canadian Tire Centre
Ottawa Senators 2 - 3 Edmonton Oilers (OT)
🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
OTT: 51.1%
EDM: 48.9%
Expected Goals
OTT: 3.35
EDM: 3.19
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 61%
Over 6.5: 45%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
OTT
Linus Ullmark - 16-8-5 | 0.884 SV% | 2.86 GAA
EDM
Tristan Jarry - 15-7-2 | 0.890 SV% | 3.18 GAA
| Stat | OTT | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.881 | 0.906 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.882 | 0.841 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.880 | — |
| GAA | 2.95 | 2.73 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • OTT at home vs EDM: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-21 | OTT 2 - 3 EDM | EDM | OTT |
| 2024-12-22 | EDM 3 - 1 OTT | EDM | EDM |
| 2024-11-19 | OTT 2 - 5 EDM | EDM | OTT |
| 2024-03-24 | OTT 5 - 3 EDM | OTT | OTT |
| 2024-01-06 | EDM 3 - 1 OTT | EDM | EDM |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16:31 | EDM | Goal |
| 2 | 00:49 | EDM | Goal |
| 3 | 00:13 | EDM | Goal |
| 3 | 01:49 | OTT | Goal |
| 4 | 02:24 | EDM | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 51.1%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.5
Score Breakdown
Ottawa Senators 2 - 3 Edmonton Oilers
Expected: 3.4 - 3.2