Vancouver Canucks at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2025-10-21 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 1 Vancouver Canucks

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PIT: 57.8%

VAN: 42.2%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.47

VAN: 3.17

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PIT

Arturs Silovs - 7-5-6 | 0.886 SV% | 3.20 GAA

VAN

Kevin Lankinen - 6-10-3 | 0.885 SV% | 3.41 GAA

Stat	PIT	VAN
Season SV%	0.886	0.885
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.20	3.41

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Arturs Silovs	24	23	1	95.8%	2.99	2	1.99
VAN	Kevin Lankinen	26	21	5	80.8%	4.56	5	-0.44

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • PIT at home vs VAN: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-25	VAN 2 - 3 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-10-21	PIT 5 - 1 VAN	PIT	PIT
2024-11-27	PIT 5 - 4 VAN	PIT	PIT
2024-10-26	VAN 4 - 3 PIT	VAN	VAN
2024-02-27	VAN 3 - 4 PIT	PIT	VAN

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	13	2	1.15
1	VAN	21	1	1.50
2	PIT	21	3	2.58
2	VAN	9	1	0.58
3	PIT	8	0	0.83
3	VAN	19	0	0.91

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown