Seattle Kraken at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2025-10-21 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 4 - 1 Seattle Kraken

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WSH: 61.6%

SEA: 38.4%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.81

SEA: 2.83

Total Goals

Median: 5.5

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

SEA

Matt Murray - 0-2-1 | 0.922 SV% | 2.21 GAA

Stat	WSH	SEA
Season SV%	0.913	0.922
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.39	2.21

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Logan Thompson	19	18	1	94.7%	1.86	0	0.86
SEA	Matt Murray	34	30	4	88.2%	3.32	3	-0.68

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • WSH at home vs SEA: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-27	SEA 5 - 1 WSH	SEA	WSH
2025-10-21	WSH 4 - 1 SEA	WSH	WSH
2025-03-09	WSH 4 - 2 SEA	WSH	WSH
2025-01-23	SEA 0 - 3 WSH	WSH	WSH
2024-03-14	SEA 1 - 2 WSH	WSH	SEA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	19	0	0.90
1	SEA	8	0	0.45
2	WSH	21	2	1.68
2	SEA	8	0	0.13
3	WSH	10	1	0.74
3	SEA	17	0	1.28

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown