Los Angeles Kings at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2025-10-21 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 1 - 2 Los Angeles Kings (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

STL: 53.3%

LAK: 46.7%

Expected Goals

STL: 3.37

LAK: 2.94

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 41%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

LAK

Darcy Kuemper - 10-7-6 | 0.913 SV% | 2.27 GAA

Stat	STL	LAK
Season SV%	0.869	0.913
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.56	2.27

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
STL	Jordan Binnington	28	26	2	92.9%	1.58	0	-0.42
LAK	Darcy Kuemper	18	17	1	94.4%	2.25	3	1.25

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • STL at home vs LAK: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-01	LAK 2 - 1 STL	LAK	LAK
2026-01-24	STL 4 - 5 LAK	LAK	LAK
2025-10-21	STL 1 - 2 LAK	LAK	STL
2025-03-08	LAK 2 - 1 STL	LAK	LAK
2025-03-05	LAK 2 - 3 STL	STL	LAK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	STL	11	1	0.66
1	LAK	13	0	0.50
2	STL	6	1	0.67
2	LAK	13	0	0.51
3	STL	13	1	0.87
3	LAK	10	0	0.36
4	STL	1	0	0.05
4	LAK	2	0	0.21

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

St. Louis Blues 1 - 2 Los Angeles Kings

Expected: 3.4 - 2.9