Columbus Blue Jackets at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2025-10-21 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 1 - 5 Columbus Blue Jackets

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DAL: 57.9%

CBJ: 42.1%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.76

CBJ: 3.06

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 49%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

CBJ

Elvis Merzlikins - 6-6-1 | 0.877 SV% | 4.04 GAA

Stat	DAL	CBJ
Season SV%	0.907	0.877
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.57	4.04

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	29	24	5	82.8%	4.24	5	-0.76
CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	23	22	1	95.7%	3.23	3	2.23

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • DAL at home vs CBJ: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-22	CBJ 1 - 0 DAL	CBJ	DAL
2025-10-21	DAL 1 - 5 CBJ	CBJ	DAL
2025-02-25	CBJ 6 - 4 DAL	CBJ	DAL
2025-02-02	DAL 5 - 3 CBJ	DAL	DAL
2023-11-09	CBJ 2 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	13	1	1.07
1	CBJ	19	1	1.23
2	DAL	16	2	1.44
2	CBJ	9	0	0.44
3	DAL	9	0	0.72
3	CBJ	17	4	2.57

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown