Montreal Canadiens at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions
2025-10-22 • Scotiabank Saddledome
Calgary Flames 1 - 2 Montreal Canadiens (OT)
🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
CGY: 54.1%
MTL: 45.9%
Expected Goals
CGY: 3.94
MTL: 3.14
Total Goals
Median: 7.3
Over 5.5: 76%
Over 6.5: 63%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
CGY
Dustin Wolf - 16-21-3 | 0.895 SV% | 3.00 GAA
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 18-5-4 | 0.892 SV% | 2.96 GAA
| Stat | CGY | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.901 | 0.889 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.877 | 0.903 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.906 | 0.973 |
| GAA | 2.82 | 3.01 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • CGY at home vs MTL: 2-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-07 | MTL 4 - 1 CGY | MTL | MTL |
| 2025-10-22 | CGY 1 - 2 MTL | MTL | CGY |
| 2025-03-08 | CGY 1 - 0 MTL | CGY | CGY |
| 2024-11-05 | MTL 2 - 3 CGY | CGY | MTL |
| 2024-03-16 | CGY 5 - 2 MTL | CGY | CGY |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17:09 | MTL | Goal |
| 3 | 05:56 | CGY | Goal |
| 4 | 01:00 | MTL | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 54.1%
Total Goals
Actual: 3.0
Expected: 7.1
Score Breakdown
Calgary Flames 1 - 2 Montreal Canadiens
Expected: 3.9 - 3.1