Chicago Blackhawks at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2025-10-23 • Benchmark International Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 3 Chicago Blackhawks
🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 53.3%
CHI: 46.7%
Expected Goals
TBL: 3.47
CHI: 2.83
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 55%
Over 6.5: 39%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 28-7-3 | 0.920 SV% | 2.11 GAA
CHI
Spencer Knight - 16-16-7 | 0.908 SV% | 2.62 GAA
| Stat | TBL | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.909 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.921 | 0.864 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.909 | 0.935 |
| GAA | 2.33 | 2.63 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 17% • TBL at home vs CHI: 0-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | CHI 1 - 2 TBL | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-10-23 | TBL 2 - 3 CHI | CHI | TBL |
| 2025-01-28 | TBL 1 - 4 CHI | CHI | TBL |
| 2025-01-24 | CHI 3 - 4 TBL | TBL | CHI |
| 2023-11-16 | CHI 2 - 4 TBL | TBL | CHI |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10:41 | CHI | Goal |
| 2 | 06:57 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 10:16 | CHI | Goal |
| 2 | 19:18 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 19:06 | CHI | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 53.3%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.3
Score Breakdown
Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 3 Chicago Blackhawks
Expected: 3.5 - 2.8