Chicago Blackhawks at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-10-23 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 3 Chicago Blackhawks

Win Probability

TBL: 43.8%

CHI: 56.2%

Expected Goals

TBL: 2.56

CHI: 2.89

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 44%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TBL at home vs CHI: 0-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-23	CHI 1 - 2 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-10-23	TBL 2 - 3 CHI	CHI	CHI
2025-01-28	TBL 1 - 4 CHI	CHI	TBL
2025-01-24	CHI 3 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2023-11-16	CHI 2 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	16	0	0.85
1	CHI	11	1	0.69
2	TBL	22	1	1.68
2	CHI	13	1	1.03
3	TBL	16	1	1.03
3	CHI	17	0	1.10

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.4

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 3 Chicago Blackhawks

Expected: 2.6 - 2.9