Chicago Blackhawks at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-10-23 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 3 Chicago Blackhawks

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TBL: 50.6%

CHI: 49.4%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.52

CHI: 3.15

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 49%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

CHI

Spencer Knight - 11-11-6 | 0.909 SV% | 2.63 GAA

Stat	TBL	CHI
Season SV%	0.913	0.909
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.33	2.63

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	25	22	3	88.0%	2.81	2	-0.19
CHI	Spencer Knight	31	29	2	93.5%	3.57	2	1.57

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • TBL at home vs CHI: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-23	CHI 1 - 2 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-10-23	TBL 2 - 3 CHI	CHI	TBL
2025-01-28	TBL 1 - 4 CHI	CHI	TBL
2025-01-24	CHI 3 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2023-11-16	CHI 2 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	16	0	0.85
1	CHI	11	1	0.69
2	TBL	22	1	1.68
2	CHI	13	1	1.03
3	TBL	16	1	1.03
3	CHI	17	0	1.10

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown