San Jose Sharks at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2025-10-23 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 5 - 6 San Jose Sharks (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (70% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYR: 70.4%

SJS: 29.6%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.57

SJS: 2.51

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 37%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

SJS

Alex Nedeljkovic - 5-7-2 | 0.895 SV% | 3.06 GAA

Stat	NYR	SJS
Season SV%	0.910	0.895
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.51	3.06

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	24	18	6	75.0%	2.58	3	-3.42
SJS	Alex Nedeljkovic	28	23	5	82.1%	2.70	1	-2.30

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • NYR at home vs SJS: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-23	SJS 3 - 1 NYR	SJS	NYR
2025-10-23	NYR 5 - 6 SJS	SJS	NYR
2025-03-29	SJS 1 - 6 NYR	NYR	SJS
2024-11-14	NYR 3 - 2 SJS	NYR	NYR
2024-01-23	SJS 3 - 2 NYR	SJS	NYR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	13	0	0.91
1	SJS	9	2	0.72
2	NYR	15	0	0.78
2	SJS	16	0	0.72
3	NYR	13	1	0.83
3	SJS	8	1	0.83
4	NYR	1	0	0.18
4	SJS	2	0	0.31

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 70.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 5 - 6 San Jose Sharks

Expected: 3.6 - 2.5