Los Angeles Kings at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2025-10-23 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 2 - 3 Los Angeles Kings (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DAL: 50.9%

LAK: 49.1%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.17

LAK: 3.11

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 40%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

LAK

Darcy Kuemper - 10-7-6 | 0.913 SV% | 2.27 GAA

Stat	DAL	LAK
Season SV%	0.907	0.913
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.57	2.27

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	25	22	3	88.0%	2.29	2	-0.71
LAK	Darcy Kuemper	31	29	2	93.5%	3.33	5	1.33

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • DAL at home vs LAK: 7-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-12	LAK 1 - 3 DAL	DAL	LAK
2025-12-15	DAL 4 - 1 LAK	DAL	DAL
2025-10-23	DAL 2 - 3 LAK	LAK	DAL
2025-02-28	DAL 6 - 2 LAK	DAL	LAK
2025-02-07	LAK 5 - 4 DAL	LAK	LAK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	15	2	0.97
1	LAK	7	2	1.02
2	DAL	16	1	1.39
2	LAK	12	0	0.65
3	DAL	9	2	0.94
3	LAK	14	0	0.46
4	DAL	1	0	0.04
4	LAK	1	0	0.16

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 2 - 3 Los Angeles Kings

Expected: 3.2 - 3.1