Montreal Canadiens at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2025-10-23 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 6 - 5 Montreal Canadiens

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

EDM: 72.3%

MTL: 27.7%

Expected Goals

EDM: 5.30

MTL: 2.85

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

EDM

Calvin Pickard - 4-5-2 | 0.874 SV% | 3.69 GAA

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

Stat	EDM	MTL
Season SV%	0.874	0.863
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.69	3.52

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Calvin Pickard	27	22	5	81.5%	4.30	4	-0.70
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	29	23	6	79.3%	4.02	4	-1.98

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • EDM at home vs MTL: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-14	MTL 4 - 1 EDM	MTL	MTL
2025-10-23	EDM 6 - 5 MTL	EDM	EDM
2025-03-06	EDM 3 - 2 MTL	EDM	EDM
2024-11-18	MTL 3 - 0 EDM	MTL	EDM
2024-03-19	EDM 3 - 2 MTL	EDM	EDM

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	10	0	0.88
1	MTL	21	2	2.28
2	EDM	14	2	1.39
2	MTL	15	1	1.26
3	EDM	20	2	1.74
3	MTL	7	1	0.76

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 72.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 8.2

Score Breakdown