Toronto Maple Leafs at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2025-10-24 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 5 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

BUF: 51.8%

TOR: 48.2%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.16

TOR: 3.17

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • BUF at home vs TOR: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	BUF 3 - 2 TOR	BUF	BUF
2026-01-27	TOR 4 - 7 BUF	BUF	BUF
2025-10-25	TOR 4 - 3 BUF	TOR	TOR
2025-10-24	BUF 5 - 3 TOR	BUF	BUF
2025-04-15	BUF 0 - 4 TOR	TOR	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	16	0	0.85
1	TOR	12	0	1.06
2	BUF	15	1	0.88
2	TOR	15	0	0.48
3	BUF	14	0	0.82
3	TOR	18	2	1.51

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 5 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.2 - 3.2