Anaheim Ducks at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-10-25 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 3 Anaheim Ducks

Win Probability

TBL: 65.9%

ANA: 34.1%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.09

ANA: 2.80

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 51%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • TBL at home vs ANA: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-31	ANA 3 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-10-25	TBL 4 - 3 ANA	TBL	TBL
2025-01-16	TBL 4 - 3 ANA	TBL	TBL
2025-01-05	ANA 4 - 1 TBL	ANA	ANA
2024-03-24	ANA 2 - 3 TBL	TBL	ANA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	13	2	1.17
1	ANA	18	0	1.34
2	TBL	18	1	1.33
2	ANA	17	0	0.80
3	TBL	24	3	2.45
3	ANA	14	1	0.64

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 65.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 3 Anaheim Ducks

Expected: 3.1 - 2.8