Vegas Golden Knights at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2025-10-25 • Amerant Bank Arena

Florida Panthers 3 - 0 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Win (58% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

FLA: 42.1%

VGK: 57.9%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.23

VGK: 3.52

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 39%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

VGK

Akira Schmid - 11-4-4 | 0.895 SV% | 2.50 GAA

Stat	FLA	VGK
Season SV%	0.888	0.895
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.80	2.50

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	17	17	0	100.0%	1.36	0	1.36
VGK	Akira Schmid	26	23	3	88.5%	3.27	3	0.27

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • FLA at home vs VGK: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-10	VGK 2 - 3 FLA	FLA	VGK
2025-10-25	FLA 3 - 0 VGK	FLA	VGK
2025-01-26	VGK 4 - 1 FLA	VGK	VGK
2024-10-19	FLA 4 - 3 VGK	FLA	FLA
2024-01-04	VGK 1 - 4 FLA	FLA	VGK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	9	1	0.55
1	VGK	11	0	0.59
2	FLA	20	2	1.88
2	VGK	11	0	0.42
3	FLA	14	0	0.84
3	VGK	11	0	0.35

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown