St. Louis Blues at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2025-10-25 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 6 - 4 St. Louis Blues

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DET: 52.7%

STL: 47.3%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.39

STL: 3.01

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DET

John Gibson - 13-8-1 | 0.893 SV% | 2.97 GAA

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

Stat	DET	STL
Season SV%	0.893	0.869
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.97	3.56

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	John Gibson	29	25	4	86.2%	4.13	5	0.13
STL	Jordan Binnington	28	22	6	78.6%	2.67	4	-3.33

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • DET at home vs STL: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-10-28	STL 2 - 5 DET	DET	STL
2025-10-25	DET 6 - 4 STL	DET	DET
2025-04-01	STL 2 - 1 DET	STL	STL
2024-12-23	DET 0 - 4 STL	STL	DET
2024-02-24	DET 6 - 1 STL	DET	STL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	7	0	0.46
1	STL	18	2	1.43
2	DET	17	2	0.96
2	STL	15	1	1.68
3	DET	14	2	1.25
3	STL	11	2	1.03

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown