Utah Hockey Club at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2025-10-26 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 2 - 3 Utah Hockey Club

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WPG: 56.3%

UTA: 43.7%

Expected Goals

WPG: 3.22

UTA: 3.06

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 41%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

UTA

Vitek Vanecek - 2-9-1 | 0.879 SV% | 2.92 GAA

Stat	WPG	UTA
Season SV%	0.907	0.879
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.51	2.92

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	32	29	3	90.6%	3.08	0	0.08
UTA	Vitek Vanecek	30	28	2	93.3%	3.61	4	1.61

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 71% • WPG at home vs UTA: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-14	UTA 5 - 3 WPG	UTA	UTA
2025-12-21	UTA 4 - 3 WPG	UTA	UTA
2025-10-26	WPG 2 - 3 UTA	UTA	WPG
2025-04-05	UTA 4 - 1 WPG	UTA	WPG
2025-01-24	WPG 5 - 2 UTA	WPG	WPG

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	16	0	0.80
1	UTA	10	0	0.40
2	WPG	14	2	1.49
2	UTA	25	0	1.90
3	WPG	16	2	1.31
3	UTA	15	0	0.78

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown