New York Rangers at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2025-10-26 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 5 - 1 New York Rangers

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CGY: 51.5%

NYR: 48.5%

Expected Goals

CGY: 2.98

NYR: 2.39

Total Goals

Median: 5.5

Over 5.5: 46%

Over 6.5: 33%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Stat	CGY	NYR
Season SV%	0.901	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.82	2.51

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dustin Wolf	31	30	1	96.8%	2.87	2	1.87
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	30	25	5	83.3%	2.70	0	-2.30

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • CGY at home vs NYR: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-10	NYR 4 - 0 CGY	NYR	NYR
2025-10-26	CGY 5 - 1 NYR	CGY	CGY
2025-03-18	NYR 1 - 2 CGY	CGY	NYR
2024-11-21	CGY 3 - 2 NYR	CGY	CGY
2024-02-12	NYR 2 - 0 CGY	NYR	NYR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	21	0	0.95
1	NYR	11	0	0.56
2	CGY	17	0	1.37
2	NYR	18	2	1.46
3	CGY	9	0	0.38
3	NYR	19	0	0.84

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 5.4

Score Breakdown