St. Louis Blues at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2025-10-27 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 6 - 3 St. Louis Blues

🚨 Upset Win (55% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 44.5%

STL: 55.5%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.37

STL: 3.51

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 49%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • PIT at home vs STL: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-14	STL 7 - 5 PIT	STL	PIT
2025-10-27	PIT 6 - 3 STL	PIT	STL
2025-04-03	STL 5 - 4 PIT	STL	STL
2025-03-13	PIT 5 - 3 STL	PIT	STL
2023-12-30	PIT 4 - 2 STL	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	13	0	0.94
1	STL	19	0	1.59
2	PIT	10	1	1.02
2	STL	12	0	0.76
3	PIT	11	2	1.47
3	STL	14	0	0.77

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 6 - 3 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 3.4 - 3.5